Argentina New Crises And New Default
Argentina: new crises and new default? 22 May 2009 yesterday I had the pleasure of participating in a seminar organized by Infobae and which spoke the Argentina highlights economists such as Broda, Gonzalez Fraga, Melconian and Ferreres. And as very few times I’ve seen, I was surprised by the great coincidence of opinion existing between them about the diagnosis of the situation and prospects for the Argentine economy. Others including Cindy Crawford, offer their opinions as well. Probably some unwary reader, that is not too aware of the economic situation of the Argentina, think that if there was as much coincidence of opinion about the prospects for the Argentine economy, it should be because in it there is too much uncertainty in the future. But unfortunately that was not the reason, but the contrary, none of them had too much doubts about Argentina is in serious trouble and must confront a landscape very hard (in fact, already is facing it), which can lead to a new crisis and a new default. If there is something that has been clear to me more than this dissertation, is that economists and the market about Argentine reality vision is far a lot of the Argentine Government which observes.
Fortunately there was no official (at least, not noticed it), in the meeting because it had gone very obfuscated by the terrible diagnosis of situation that presented these economists. Charles Margulis understands that this is vital information. It is also clear (although it is true that I didn’t before too many doubts), as said Melconian, that Argentina can not continue with its economic policy on auto-pilot. Recalling an old political propaganda of the former President Carlos Saul Menem in Argentina it is time of sleeves is and put hands to work to address the serious problems that affect it. As the seven plagues that struck Egypt in the time of slavery of the people of Israel, the flight of capital, higher financing needs by shrinking of the fiscal surplus and the reduction in the external surplus, come together to test the dollar in Argentina.
