Healthy Credit
In some cases, the speed and number of resignations are records; – Exchange Volatileness with expressive variations in the quotation of the currencies; – Fall of the prescription fiscal tax and magnifying of dficits; – Fast I decline of the global commerce. In the Brazilian case, the crisis arrived through the misalignment of relative prices in exchange and in commodities and of the sudden and deep contraction of the credit. The brusque occured depreciation in the third trimester of more than 40% of the real front to the dollar caused significant financial losses to the treasure-houses of companies badly located in the futures market of currencies, as the Healthy one, the Votorantim and the Aracruz, among others, however, the level of exposition to this type of operation of the Brazilian companies, including of closely held corporation, not yet is known. After that, the misalignment was felt in the international trade. The Brazilian trade balance, before surplus, extended a movement of reduction of the commercial balances in result of the loss of prescriptions, as much for the fall of the prices of commodities how much for the reduction of the embarked volumes.
Both the movements had signaled the beginning of the retraction of the world-wide market for Brazil and that the existing relative prices in the economy before September of 2008, do not exist more. The eventual fall or commercial elimination of supervits, allies to the reduction of the credit in the international market and the probable fall of the investments right-handers in Brazil and of other 18 prescriptions will have effect in the tax of economic growth e, depending on the sum of loss of ingressions, will be difficult withhold the increase of the unemployment and the loss of income. The situation if would aggravate very if the remaining level of economic activity provoked dficits commercial. Beyond the effect of the reduction of the exportations, the demand for products of bigger value fell more and dependents of the credit availability (immovable, automobiles, eletroeletrnicos, household-electric and machines and equipment).
